Monday, July 23, 2012

The election scenario no one's mentioning.

Stumbled across an interesting option for the 2012 presidential election while playing around with the website

This website will start off by filling in the states where the polls are already dramatic one way or t'other. CA blue, Texas red, etc. You can then predict how you see the states in play will fall and it will give you the totals of who would win with that breakdown. As it currently stands, they list as in play:

  • Nevada
  • Colorado
  • Iowa
  • Wisconsin
  • Ohio
  • Pennsylvania
  • New Hampshire
  • Virginia
  • North Carolina
  • Florida
Let's say the Dems keep Nevada -- Harry Reid's home state, didn't go our way in 2010. I'll also give the Dems Colorado. I don't buy that New Hampshire is in play, so you can color that one blue as well. Virginia's always been a pretty middle-of-the-road state, but let's say that the population of DC federal employees that continue to spread out into VA keep that one barely blue. Pennsylvania would be an amazing pickup, but I don't see it happening.

Wisconsin, after the Scott Walker fun, could be a Republican pickup. Iowa and NC come back into the GOP fold. For the sake of this breakdown I'm giving Romney Ohio and Florida ---both certainly possible.

This breakdown would be 269 - 269. A tie.

Which then gets thrown to the House of Representatives.

Boy, you wanna see a hot mess of media engaging in self-flagellation and tearing of clothes...

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